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Why Some Industrial Leases Are Worth Less Than the Paper They're Printed On

A plain English guide for investors weighing up a leased industrial asset in Melbourne's west, before the yield becomes the problem

Why Some Industrial Leases Are Worth Less Than the Paper They're Printed On

You've found an industrial property in Melbourne's west with a tenant already in place, a lease on the table, and a yield that looks attractive on a spreadsheet. Before you get excited about that number, ask a harder question. Can this tenant actually keep paying, year after year, through a downturn, a change of ownership, or a shift in their industry. That question is what covenant strength is really about, and it matters more than almost anything else in the deal.

What Covenant Strength Actually Means

Covenant strength is simply a measure of how likely a tenant is to meet their lease obligations for the full term. It has nothing to do with how tidy their warehouse looks or how friendly the site manager is on inspection day. It is about the entity behind the signature, their financial position, their trading history, and whether the business they run still needs a shed like yours in five years time.

A high yield on a weak tenant is not a return, it is a risk wearing a disguise.

The Factors Investors Should Weigh

1
The entity on the leaseCheck whether the tenant is a small trading company, a subsidiary of a larger group, or a personal guarantor standing behind the lease. Each carries a different level of protection if things go wrong.
2
Trading history and industry positionA tenant who has operated profitably in the same trade for years is a different proposition to a new entrant leasing their first facility.
3
Financial statements and payment historyLook for consistent rent payment, reasonable debt levels, and a business that is not stretched thin trying to cover the lease.
4
Length and structure of the leaseA longer lease with fixed or reviewed increases gives more certainty than a short term arrangement with options that favour the tenant.
5
How replaceable the tenant isConsider how easily the space could be re-let if this tenant left, based on the building's location, size, and configuration.
6
Personal or corporate guaranteesUnderstand exactly who stands behind the lease if the trading entity cannot pay, and what that guarantee is actually worth.

The lease document tells you what the tenant promised. Covenant strength tells you whether they can keep that promise.

Mistakes Investors Make When Assessing a Tenant

Reading the lease and stopping thereThe lease sets out obligations, it does not prove the tenant can meet them.
Assuming a long lease term equals safetyA ten year lease with a shaky tenant is still a ten year risk, not a ten year guarantee.
Ignoring the parent company structureSome tenants operate through a lightly capitalised entity while the real business sits elsewhere, out of reach if things go wrong.
Skipping industry contextA tenant in a declining sector can look financially sound today and still be vulnerable within the lease term.
Focusing only on the headline rentA tenant paying above market rent is sometimes the one most likely to seek a reduction or walk away when trading conditions tighten.

Reading the Financials Without Overstepping

This is general information only, not financial, tax or legal advice, and Fairmont is a property agency, not a licensed financial adviser. When you are reviewing tenant financials, lease structures, or how a purchase might sit within a broader portfolio or superannuation strategy, speak with your own accountant, financial adviser or SMSF specialist before making a decision. What we can help with is the property side, reading the lease terms clearly, understanding how the tenant fits the building, and flagging where a covenant looks stronger or weaker than the yield suggests.

Vacancy across Melbourne's western industrial corridor has generally remained tight, which does give landlords more leverage if a tenant needs to be replaced. That backdrop matters, but it is not a substitute for doing the work on the tenant sitting in front of you right now.

What This Means for Your Next Purchase

A weak tenant on a strong building is a fixable problem over time. A strong tenant on a weak building is a much better starting position than most investors assume. The mistake is buying on yield alone and only asking about the tenant after settlement, when there is nothing left to negotiate. Before you commit, get the lease, the financials, and the entity structure in front of someone who deals with industrial tenants across this market every week.

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Manny Singh
Manny Singh
Director (OIEC), Fairmont Property Group

Fairmont only sells and leases industrial property across Melbourne's western corridor and Geelong. That focus is deliberate. It means we know the buyers who are active right now and what they are prepared to pay.